An A for Eli...and Indy too

Football Betting Lines

02/07/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Before Peyton Manning's future become dissected and over-analyzed to tiresome Favrethian degrees over the next month, it's time to give his little brother some very big credit.

If there were any lingering doubts about Eli Manning's worthiness among the NFL's upper echelon of quarterbacks heading into Super Bowl XLVI, they were erased much like the New England Patriots' once-mighty mystique in the aftermath of Sunday's latest vintage performance by the NFL's new king of clutch.

Eli Manning's fearless and flawless effort in the late stages of his New York Giants' 21-17 edging of the Patriots at The House that Peyton Built, Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium, is certainly nothing new -- he's now engineered two Super Bowl-winning touchdown drives and three overall in the final minute against the very same foe within a four-year span.

His present mentioning in the same stratosphere of the all-time greats at the sport's most glorious position? Now that's anything but old hat.

What a difference a year can make.

Twelve months ago, the younger Manning was still considered one of the game's true enigmas -- terrific at times, maddeningly horrid at others -- and was coming off a particularly frustrating 2010 season in which he threw a league- high 25 interceptions and was responsible for a whopping 30 total turnovers in 16 starts. But jump ahead to the Monday after the NFL's most recent showcase extravaganza, and the talk isn't whether he belongs in the elite category -- it's whether he'll be one day sharing a bust alongside his brother in Canton.

And such an argument can no longer be viewed as either preposterous or premature. Manning is now the proud owner of two Super Bowl Most Valuable Player awards following this cold-blooded come-through, placing him in the company of Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Bart Starr and the man he outgunned on Sunday, Tom Brady.

Those first three are already in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Brady's going there someday. And Manning has now bested the New England superstar in three consecutive head-to-head meetings, two of which came in the game that most defines a quarterback's legacy.

And Manning's importance to the Giants' fourth Super Bowl title run, a prospect that seemed unfathomable when the team was stuck in playoff purgatory with a 7-7 record entering the regular season's final two weeks, can absolutely not be understated. Twelve times New York trailed in the fourth quarter of a game, and they rallied to win seven of those contests. Five of them came on the road.

And in those seven victories, Manning threw for a total of nine touchdowns.

"We've been in this situation time in and time out," said wide receiver Hakeem Nicks afterward. "We knew what we were capable of doing, and we got the job done."

To be fair, Manning did have some help in pulling off this feat, from both his teammates and the opponent. The comeback wouldn't have been possible without wide receiver Mario Manningham channeling his inner David Tyree and making a stupendous 38-yard catch along the sidelines to begin the deciding drive. The Giants may not have had a chance to take the lead if the ever-reliable Wes Welker doesn't let a Brady deep strike slip through his fingers on the preceding series, or if the Patriots managed to successfully recover any of three New York fumbles over the course of the night.

And even referee John Parry's ruling of intentional grounding by Brady in the end zone in the first quarter had a profound effect on the game's ending. If Parry doesn't make that call -- though justifiable, probably half of the officials rule in Brady's favor -- the Patriots likely are trailing by only a field goal (assuming the Giants kicked the extra point instead of going for two on the last score) when getting the ball back with 57 seconds left instead of needing a touchdown.

Still, none of that takes anything away from Manning's superb play, both on New York's critical last possession or the game itself, or how one man's exploits has permanently changed the fortunes of both of these two franchises.

Just think about if the Giants don't come out on top on Sunday, or if Manning and Tyree fail to connect for that miracle reception that triggered New England's demise in Super Bowl XLII four years ago. The Patriots would have an unprecedented five Lombardi Trophies in an 11-year span (the 49ers won four over 11 seasons from 1984-94) and a deserved reputation of one of the NFL's most dominant dynasties, instead of the tarnished label they now carry courtesy of the team that's become their biggest nemesis (sorry, Rex Ryan).

And Manning doesn't achieve the distinction he now rightfully holds -- that of the best quarterback in the league today with the game on the line.

"A game like this, I didn't expect nothing less," quipped Nicks.

As for Peyton, it's anybody's guess as to whether he'll ever have another opportunity to play in a Super Bowl, and it seems inevitable that the four-time league MVP will have to chase that goal in some other locale than the only one he's ever known as a professional and where's he's held in a reverence reserved for royalty. But that's a topic for another day...and the day after...and so on until his 2012 fate is finally determined.

As for Indianapolis, Super Bowl XLVI should in no way be its last after how the city expertly handled its first shot as a host.

Though the bar may have been set somewhat low, as let's face it, Central Indiana isn't normally on most people's preferred list of desired destinations for the first week of February. Indianapolis knew it needed to swing for the fences to make an impression on the NFL, the national media and all it's visitors -- and by all accounts knocked it out of the park.

There were no embarrassing ticket snafus like the one that gave Dallas a black eye at last year's game, or long and tedious shuttle rides across the prairie to get to and from the stadium. Nothing was overdone, but everything was done right.

And in reality, that shouldn't have come as a surprise. With a centrally- convenient layout and a relatively close proximity to a number of major markets, Indianapolis is a place built to host championships. And the town has plenty of experience in doing so, having put on seven NCAA Men's Basketball Final Fours in its history and four since 1997. Plus you may be familiar with a certain auto race held on the city's outskirts every Memorial Day weekend, which just happens to be the largest-attended single-day sporting event in the United States.

Now, there's no question Indy got a big assist from Mother Nature, with this past week's weather more in line with the middle of May than the middle of winter. But even if the temperature had been hovering in the 20's instead of the 50's, it would have been hard to come away displeased after how professional and hospitable the city and its people were.

If there's one factor that could work against Indianapolis in its quest for more Super Bowls, it's size. Lucas Oil Stadium's maximum capacity of around 70,000 makes it among the NFL's smaller venues, and it was a bit of a chore at times getting through the mammoth crowds that had packed the downtown streets and its establishments to the brim.

But that's nitpicking. Here's hoping the league puts public satisfaction above attendance and revenue maximizing when reviewing Indy's Super Bowl candidacy in the future.

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FOOTBALL BETTING

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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.

Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.

Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.

So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.

In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.

For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.

The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.

The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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